| 推力轴承油膜瞬态温度的ARIMA模型预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙利辉,王志刚.推力轴承油膜瞬态温度的ARIMA模型预测[J].系统仿真学报,2002,14(4):516-518. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙利辉 王志刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学管理学院,西安,710049
2. 海信集团有限公司,青岛266071 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对大型推力轴承油膜温度监控这一关键性问题，提出了采用非平稳时间序列ARIMA（p,d,q)模型瞬态温度变化。用一组实测温度变化曲线证明了用ARIMA模型描述油膜温度的适用发性，最后用了校正递推处来实时预测将来时刻油膜温度变化趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 推力轴承 油膜瞬态温度 ARIMA模型 预测 水轮发电机 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-731X(2002)04-0516-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年3月11日 |
ARIMA Model to Predict Transient Oil Film Temperature of Thrust Bearings |
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| SUN Li-hui,WANG Zhi-gang.ARIMA Model to Predict Transient Oil Film Temperature of Thrust Bearings[J].Journal of System Simulation,2002,14(4):516-518. |
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| Authors: | SUN Li-hui WANG Zhi-gang |
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| Institution: | SUN Li-hui1,WANG Zhi-gang2 |
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| Abstract: | The nonstationary time series model ARIMA (p, d, q) describing the transient oil film temperature is adopted aimed at the key issue of oil film temperature monitoring of the large scale thrust bearings. The actual measurement of oil film temperature demonstrates that it is feasible to utilize ARIMA (p, d, q) to describe the oil temperature transients of thrust bearings. At the end, the on-line recursion algorithm of updating forecast formula is presented to predict variation trend of the oil film temperature for thrust bearings. |
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| Keywords: | time series ARIMA model forecasting thrust bearings |
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