陇东南地区粮食安全与空间格局分析-以天水市为例

基于天水市1978—2008年的农业经济统计数据，运用最小耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型对天水市的粮食安全状况进行时空动态分析，利用空间自相关模型对天水市的113个乡镇的人均耕地面积和人均粮食占有量进行空间分布分析。分析结果表明：天水市的5县2区中的秦安县为粮食较安全区域，耕地压力指数较小，其他区、县分剐为粮食较不安全区域和不安全区域；通过计算全局Moran指数I得出：天水市的人均耕地面积、人均粮食占有量都呈现出明显的空间全局正自相关；Moran散点图刻画了天水市各个乡镇人均粮食和耕地占有量的局部空间联系形式，呈现出一种高高聚集和低低聚集的空间组织形式。图8，参12。

Spatial-temporal Differences in Food Security and Spatial Autocorrelation of Tianshui

The food security of Tianshui was analyzed according to agricultural economics data of the yearbook from 1978 to2008 by using the model of smallest Cultivated Land Area and the model of Cultivated Land Pressure Index. Then we drew the Moran scatter plot of per capita cultivated land and per capita food in Tianshui based on the software--Geoda095i. The results showed that the county of Qinan was the only safe district of food supply, and its pressure of cultivated field was smallest among all the counties. By the Moran scatter plot, we could get that the index of per capita cultivated land area and per capita grain represented highly positive global spatial auto-con＇elated. The spatial correlation represented high-high aggregation and low-low aggregation.