城市群城际运输结构配置客流分担率模型

为建立中短距离多方式大容量城市群城际运输通道旅客运输方式合理分担率模型,分析了通道内旅客出行运输方式选择特征及客流分担率的影响因素;从城际交通一体化和全程出行链的构成出发引入广义费用函数,运用极大似然法对传统的多维Logit概率模型进行改进,从全程效用最优化和运输方式衔接一体化的角度,分析了城际运输通道交通衔接和换乘关系;最后,利用模型预测了未来广清（广州—清运）城际运输通道内各运输方式分担率的变化。研究结果表明,该模型具有较高的可靠性。

Sharing ratios model of passenger flows in intercity transportation structure configuration among urban agglomeration

To establish the rational sharing ratios model of passenger flows in the intercity transportation corridor with features of middle and short distance,multi-mode,and large capacity,the passengers’ choice characteristics of transportation mode and the factors of sharing ratios of passenger flows were analyzed,the generalized cost function was introduced from the points of intercity traffic integration and the entire travel chain,and the traditional multi-dimensional Logit model was improved by maximum likelihood method.From the views of whole effectiveness optimization and integration of transport modes’ convergence,the relationship of transportation convergence and transfer was analyzed in urban agglomeration transportation corridor.This model was applied in Guangzhou-Qingyuan transportation corridor to predict the changes of sharing rates.The results show that this model has a high reliability.4 tabs,1 fig,10 refs.