灰色理论GM(1,1)模型在水文预测中的应用——以清江河城区洪峰流量为例

灰色理论在处理和预测时间序列过程中可以有效重构时间序列的规律性.从长期预测角度出发,GM(1,1)模型对时间序列的预测可以达到一定的预期效果.通过近20年恩施城区洪峰流量的观察,清江河流洪峰流量变化存在一定的周期性,通过对GM(1,1)模型计算分析结果表明:一阶微分方程本身的指数函数规律,并不能很好反映周期性波动的洪峰流量变化规律,同时表明单因素流量预测存在很大局限性.

Grey Theory GM(1,1) Model Hydrologic Prediction——Clear Rivers and Urban Peak Flow

Gray theory is effective reconstruction of the regularity of the time series processing and forecasting time series process.From the perspective of long-term projections,GM(1,1) model for time series prediction can achieve the desired effect.In this paper,the nearly 20-year peak flow observed in Enshi city,Qingjiang River peak flow changes there is a certain cyclical calculation results show that the GM(1,1) model:first order differential equations exponential function of the law,not very better reflect the periodic fluctuations in peak flow variation,at the same time there are great limitations that flow projections of single factor.