| 上海未来百年海平面上升预测及影响浅析 |
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| 引用本文： | 史运良 沈晓东. 上海未来百年海平面上升预测及影响浅析[J]. 南京大学学报(自然科学版), 1992, 28(4): 614-622 |
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| 作者姓名： | 史运良 沈晓东 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学大地海洋科学系，南京大学大地海洋科学系 |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 海平面 绝对上升 相对上升 上海 |
FORECASTING THE RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE IN SHANGHAI FOR THE NEXT HUNDRED YEARS AND ANALYZING ITS EFFECTS |
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| Shi Yunliang Shen Xiandong. FORECASTING THE RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE IN SHANGHAI FOR THE NEXT HUNDRED YEARS AND ANALYZING ITS EFFECTS[J]. Journal of Nanjing University: Nat Sci Ed, 1992, 28(4): 614-622 |
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| Authors: | Shi Yunliang Shen Xiandong |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Geo and ocean sciences |
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| Abstract: | Located on the eastern edge of the Yangtze Delta,Shanghai always faces the threats of flooding,typhoon and storm surge.However,apart from these,it will be disastrously affected by the sea level rise (SLR) as a result of greenhouse effect.To calculate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) in Shanghai,the paper not only considers the future eustatic rise,but also takes the vertical displacement of the earth's crust and groud subsi- dence into account.The paper puts forward the values of RSLR,and includes five scenarions,one of which,scenario E,considers the effect of RSLR on the height of storm surge.It has also shown that the value of RSLR greater than 127cm or less than 57cm is highly impossible and much lower probability incident.Based on the five scenarions,the paper analyses the impact of RSLR on the return period of storm surge,thus quantitatively indicating the need of future flood protection. |
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| Keywords: | eustatic sea level rise relative sea level rise vertical displacement of earth crust ground subsidence storm surge |
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