| 洪水联合风险分析方法的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 段小兰,郝振纯.洪水联合风险分析方法的探讨[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(2):8-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段小兰 郝振纯 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程学科国家重点实验室,南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划，国家自然科学基金项目，水利部公益性项目，水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项 |
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| 摘 要： | 洪水总是表现为多特征属性，针对传统单变量洪水分析的片面性，同时考虑洪峰和洪量对防洪风险的影响，从概率论角度出来，采用秩相关系数和Copula函数理论，构造洪水联合风险概率模型，模型不仅能够避免计算条件概率的复杂性，并且很好地表示了洪峰和洪量的复杂关系；采用随机模拟的方法，通过联合风险概率模型进行随机抽样计算，得出联合洪水风险概率与单变量洪水风险概率的3种不同关系，论证洪水风险分析综合考虑洪峰和洪量的必要性．
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水联合风险 多变量 Copula函数 随机模拟 |
Study of Joint Flood Risk Analysis |
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| Duan Xiaolan,Hao Zhenchun.Study of Joint Flood Risk Analysis[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences),2011,33(2):8-11. |
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| Authors: | Duan Xiaolan Hao Zhenchun |
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| Institution: | Duan Xiaolan Hao Zhenchun(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | The flood always has many characteristic attribute,to avoid the shortages of traditional flood analysis,it is necessary to consider the influence of both the peak flow and the total runoff on the flood control risk.The Kendall related coefficient and Copula function are adopted to construct joint probabilistic model for flood risk analysis;the model can not only avoid complex calculation,but also express the complicated relationship between the peak flow and the total runoff for flood risk analysis successfully.The method of random simulation and the probabilistic model are used to evaluate the joint risk of flood,and to find out that there are three situations between the joint risk and univariate risk. |
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| Keywords: | joint flood risk multivariate Copula function random simulation |
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