Logistic曲线在预测中的一种应用

Logistic(逻辑斯谛)曲线最早由比利时学者(P.Frerulst)在1838年提出。后来,美国生物学家、人口统计学家(P.Peari)和学者(L.Jreed)于1920年在研究果蝇的繁殖中重新发现了这条曲线,并且开始应用在人口估计和预测之中。本文采用该曲线预测某城市职工在几类耐用消费品方面的普及率。

The Application of Logistic Curve in Calculations

The logistic curve was first put forward by P. Frerulst, the Belgian scholar in 1838. LaterP. peari, the American biologist and statistician of population, and L. Jreed, the American scholer found the same lurve again in 1920 while studying the reproduction of fruit fly. P. Peari and L. J Jreed began to apply it to the estimation and calculation of population. It is now found this curu can predict the popularization rate of all kinds of durable consumer goods which are demanded by the staff and workers in a certain city.