基于土地利用形态的城市防护人口基数计算方法

以信息化战争中人口防护的要求为目标，对快速城市化背景下防护人口基数的计算方法进行了探讨。解析城市昼夜人口分布差异的原因，在此基础上，构建了以就业人口为影响因素的城市防护人口基数的计算方法。根据城市就业人口分布与城市用地形态的关系建立了人口分布预测模型，引入了就业人口吸引权、用地规模、土地利用强度、区位系数作为模型的基本参数，给出了取值方法。以某市中心城区为实例对防护人口基数进行了计算，计算结果可以供编制人防工程规划参考。

Approach to calculation of urban protective population number based on characteristics of land utilizing

The protective population number is one of the most important indexes in urban civil defense planning. The method for determining the protective population number needs to follow the protective law in certain patterns of war. In order to meet the requirements of protection of the population in the information war, a method for calculating the protective population number in the context of rapid urbanization in China was proposed. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the distribution of daytime population change in the metropolis, the calculation method of the protective population number in major cities was proposed. A forecast model was established based on the characteristics of urban land utilizing and the planned protective population number was provided. It provides several basic parameters such as employed population attracting rate, intensity coefficient, location coefficient and their value taking method.