| 中国入境旅游者增长的周期性波动 |
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| 引用本文： | 张宏梅,陆林.中国入境旅游者增长的周期性波动[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2004,27(4):457-460. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张宏梅 陆林 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽师范大学,国土资源与旅游学院,安徽,芜湖,241000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金
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安徽省教育厅人文社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 用环比法和前向移动平均法对中国入境旅游者人数的年度资料(1978-2002年)、月度资料(1989-2002年)进行周期波动的时间序列分析,分析结果表明,入境旅游者人数增长呈不规则周期性波动.年度资料可分为三个周期,前两个周期振幅较大,周期长度相对较短,后一个周期振幅相对较小,周期长度较长.月度资料可划为一个周期,该周期属前峰型周期,收缩期相对较长.目前,中国入境旅游仍处于收缩期,增长率可能会在2003年明显下降,使谷底位置进一步降低.
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| 关 键 词： | 入境旅游者 周期波动 时间序列分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-2443(2004)04-0457-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月26日 |
THE CYCLES OF TOURIST NUMBER TO CHINA |
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| ZHANG Hong-mei,LU Lin.THE CYCLES OF TOURIST NUMBER TO CHINA[J].Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2004,27(4):457-460. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hong-mei LU Lin |
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| Abstract: | This paper makes a time series analysis of the number of tourist to China both on annual data(1978-2002)and monthly data(1989-2002). The result indicates that tourist number to China shows irregular cycle fluctuation.Yearly cycles can be divided into three cycles,the former two cycles'amplitude are greater and their length are shorter,whereas the latter's amplitude is smaller and length is longer.Monthly data can be viewed as one cycle in which the summit appears in the first years,and the valley period is longer.At present,tourism to China still lies in valley ,the rate of growth may decline obviously and makesthe location of valley drop greatly in 2003. |
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| Keywords: | tourist to China cycle fluctuation time series analysis |
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