| 城市土地需求预测及土地储备策略 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雪青,邴兴国,孙冰.城市土地需求预测及土地储备策略[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2009,28(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雪青 邴兴国 孙冰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津大学管理学院,天津,300072
2. 辽宁工程技术大学技术和经济学院,辽宁,阜新,123000 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对城市土地储备系统具有较高的不确定性及土地储备的滞后性,土地需求预测是土地储备数量合理确定的基础,利用EViews拟合ARIMA模型,建立了城市土地季节性需求预测模型.并通过了博克斯-皮尔斯Q统计量法检验,表明建立的模型适用于城市土地需求的动态分析和预测.根据预测结果,利用模糊规划的方法,提出了在土地储备模糊约束条件下的土地储备数量确定方法.对某市土地储备数量的确定进行了实证研究,演示了模犁和决策方法的应用,验证了预测模型和决策方法的科学性和实用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 城市土地储备 ARIMA模型 时间序列 模糊规划 储备数量 |
Land demand prediction of city and strategies of city land reserve |
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| WANG Xueqing,BIGN Xingguo,SUN Bing.Land demand prediction of city and strategies of city land reserve[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science Edition),2009,28(2). |
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| Authors: | WANG Xueqing BIGN Xingguo SUN Bing |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Management;Tianjin University;Tianjin 300072 China;2.College of Technical And Economy;Liaoning Technical University;Fuxin 123000 China |
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| Abstract: | In view of High uncertainty exists in city land reserve system,and land demand prediction is a foundation for the confirmation of quantity of land reserve.Seasonal demand prediction model of city land is constructed by fitting ARIMA model with EViews soft,and has passed Box-Pierce Q test,which has shown that the model constructed is applicable in predicting the land demand of the city.On the basis of prediction result,confirmation method of land reserve quantity under the condition of fuzzy constraints has ... |
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| Keywords: | city land reserve arima model time series fuzzy programming land reserve quantity |
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