支持武器装备体系论证的探索性分析框架研究

武器装备体系论证评估属于宏观层次的决策分析问题,需要考虑复杂多变的环境和大量不确定因素的影响.探索性分析方法是一种将多种知识和方法结合起来的敏捷分析方法,针对武器装备宏观论证中面临的大量不确定性问题,提出了探索性分析框架.该框架从各种知识获取开始,包括探索性分析建模（以基于扩展影响图的分析建模和主动元建模为关键技术）,不确定性处理方法和实验分析方法,最终支持鲁棒决策,并且该框架在空军战役探索性分析中得到了初步应用.

Exploratory Analysis Framework Research for Weapon System of Systems Evaluation

Weapon system of system evaluation belongs to high-level decision-making, and it is necessary to consider a lot of uncertainty environments and factors. Exploratory analysis is an agility analysis method combine multi-knowledge and multi-methodology. For deal with uncertainty problem of weapon system of system evaluation, a framework was brought forward, The exploratory analysis framework includes gain various knowledge, exploratory analysis modeling, uncertainty management and expeiiment analysis, finally sustains a robust decision-making, Exploratory analysis modeling is the most important part of the framework, and it includes an analysis modeling based on extend influence diagram and motivated meta-models; finally the framework has applied for air force campaign exploratory analysis.