基于扩散理论的中国公共自行车系统发展研究

通过对国内外公共自行车发展情况分析,结合中国公共自行车系统数据研究其快速发展的原因及未来趋势,基于扩散理论解释公共自行车产生和增长的动力机制.经过主成份分析计算人口、面积、年份、地理位置、相对距离等5个因素对于公共自行车系统建设的贡献程度,得出系统得分公式,利用公式对各个区域系统进行检测,发现得分落在(-0.5,0.5)区间内的累计频率达到80%,因此可以作为系统建设的特征指标,为政府和企业进行公共自行车系统规划建设提供合理的理论依据.

Diffusion of Bike-Sharing:Evidence from China

Based on the analysis on the development of public bicycles at home and abroad,the causes and future trends of the rapid development of public bicycle system in China were studied,and the dynamic mechanism of the public bicycle generation and growth was explained based on the diffusion theory.Based on the principal component analysis,the factors such as the population,area,year,geographical location and relative distance were used to determine the contribution degree of the public bicycle system.The formula for the system score was obtained by using the detection of regional systems.It is found,in the (-0.5,0.5) score interval,the cumulative frequency reaches 80%,so it can be used as a system construction characteristics indicator.For the government and enterprises to plan and construct the public bicycle system,the results provide a reasonable theoretical basis.