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社会风险预警指标体系及其实证研究
引用本文:陈远章.社会风险预警指标体系及其实证研究[J].系统工程,2008,26(9).
作者姓名:陈远章
作者单位:中南大学,商学院,湖南,长沙,410083
摘    要:根据社会风险的逻辑构成设计了一套社会风险预警指标体系,采用AHP与Delphi法相结合来进行权重分析,设计了社会风险预警的评估模型,通过社会风险评价值的大小来反映社会风险预警程度.并根据模型对我国1987~2007年的社会风险进行预警分析.实证表明,该模型具有一定的实用价值.

关 键 词:社会风险  预警  指标体系  实证研究

Forewarning Index System of Social Risk and Its Empirical Research
CHEN Yuan-zhang.Forewarning Index System of Social Risk and Its Empirical Research[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(9).
Authors:CHEN Yuan-zhang
Institution:School of Business;Central South University;Changsha 410083;China
Abstract:The thesis designs Forewarning Index System of social risk based on its logical structure,analyzes its weight ratio by combining AHP with Delphi method,designs assessment model of social risk forewarning,and reflects the degree of social risk forewarning by the outcome of assessment on social risk.In addition,we apply this model to make forewarning analysis of Chinese social risk from 1987 to 2007,the empirical research shows that it is of practical value.
Keywords:Social Risk  Forewarning  Index System  Empirical Research  
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