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中国出口商品结构的预测分析
引用本文:崔蔚,王立元,王惠文.中国出口商品结构的预测分析[J].系统工程,2003,21(4):56-60.
作者姓名:崔蔚  王立元  王惠文
作者单位:北京航空航天大学,经济管理学院,北京,100083
基金项目:国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目 (70 12 5 0 0 3),教育部跨世纪优秀人才培养计划资助项目
摘    要:出口商品结构是指一国时外贸易中各商品组成部分在贸易总体中的地位和比例关系,它可以反映国家经济发展水平和商品的国际市场竞争力。运用球坐标变换的成分数据预测方法,研究我国出口商品结构的动态变化规律,对中国出口商品结构的发展趋势进行分析与预测。研究表明.近十年期间我国的出口商品结构正快速由劳动密集型商品向资本密集型和技术密集型商品过渡.初级产品比重的不断下降,机械及运输设备的比重迅速提高。研究结果为进一步分析我国产业结构的调整方向、优化我国的出口商品结构提供参考信息。

关 键 词:对外贸易  商品结构  出口商品结构  出口贸易  商品贸易  预测分析  中国
文章编号:1001-4098(2003)04-0056-05

Prediction and Analysis of Composition of Export Commodity in China
CUI Wei,Wang Li yuan,WANG Hui wen.Prediction and Analysis of Composition of Export Commodity in China[J].Systems Engineering,2003,21(4):56-60.
Authors:CUI Wei  Wang Li yuan  WANG Hui wen
Abstract:The composition of export commodity is defined as proportion of every kind of product in foreign trade, which shows the level of economic development and the capability of competition of a country in international market. By using predictive modeling approach of compositional data through hyperspherical transformation, the developing trend of the composition of export commodity in China is forecasted. It is indicated that the composition of export commodity in China has been changing from labor intensive products to capital intensive and technology intensive products during the recent years. The proportion of primary products is continuously decreasing while the proportion of mechanical device products is rapidly increasing. The research results in this paper are helpful to improve Chinese industrial structure and to optimize the composition of export commodity in China.
Keywords:Composition of Export Commodity  Compositional Data  Predictive Modeling
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