应用灰色系统原理进行长期电力需求预测

本文从理论上分析了灰色系统预测ＧＭ（１，１）模型的适用条件。针对电力系统中电力需求增长的特点，提出了分段最优ＧＭ（１，１）模型，利用电力需求的增长与国民经济增长的相关关系，把分段最优ＧＮ（１，１）模型应用于长期电力需求预测，并用实例证明了此方法的可行性。

Long-term Forecasting of Electric Power Demand Using Grey Theory

In this paper the application conditions of the grey prediction GM(1,1) are studied and the method of section optimization for GM(1,1) model in the long-term forecasting load is proposed. The load is forecasted in accordance with the relation between the increments of the electric power demanded and the incre- ments of national economy. The calculation result has proved that this method is feasible and effective.