基于同类单因素影响的施工进度预测模型研究

在工程项目管理实践中,施工进度管理直接关系到项目投资效益的及时发挥,是项目管理关键指标之一.由于施工过程的复杂性、动态性、不确定性等原因,使得工程实施中进度的预测与控制难度极大.研究基于可靠性理论、概率论方法,量化施工进度计划执行中复杂影响因素的不确定性和随机性,建立施工进度同类单因素影响可靠性预测模型,并应用于工程实例,对施工进度实施中短期复杂变化进行科学、定量的预测分析,从而更加准确评估工期风险,有效地控制施工进度.

Study on Predictive Model for Construction Schedule Based on the Effect of Single Congeneric Factor

In the practice of project management,construction schedule management which concerns the benefits of project investment is one of key indices.Because of complexity,dynamics and uncertainty in the process of construction,the schedule prediction and control during the construction implementation are extremely difficult.This study quantizes the uncertainty and randomness of complicated factors in the enforcement of construction schedule on the basis of reliability theory and probability theory.Reliability prediction model for single congeneric factor influence has been established and applied to engineering case.The model can take scientifically and quantitatively predictive analysis to the short-term complicated changes during the implementation of construction schedule,thus evaluating the risk of construction duration more accurately and controlling construction schedule more effectively.