| 城镇化与工业化、农业现代化协调发展研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 方健雯.城镇化与工业化、农业现代化协调发展研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析[J].科技与经济,2014,27(6):76-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方健雯 |
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| 作者单位： | 苏州大学中国特色城镇化研究中心，苏州215006; 苏州大学东吴商学院，苏州215021 |
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| 摘 要： | 在平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验的基础上建立SVAR模型,对城镇化、工业化和农业现代化协调发展进行实证研究。结果表明城镇化、工业化、农业现代化之间存在长期均衡关系。在SVAR模型基础上的脉冲响应和方差分解结果表明,工业化冲击会对城镇化和农业现代化产生正向而持久的冲击。
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇化 工业化 农业现代化 SVAR模型 脉冲响应 方差分解 |
Coordinated Development of Urbanization,Industrialization and Agriculture Modernization---Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model |
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| FANG Jian-wen.Coordinated Development of Urbanization,Industrialization and Agriculture Modernization---Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model[J].Science & Technology and Economy,2014,27(6):76-80. |
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| Authors: | FANG Jian-wen |
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| Institution: | FANG Jian-wen ( 1 Center for Chinese Urbanization Studies, Suzhou University, Suzhou Jiangsu 215021, China; 2 Dongwu Business School, Suzhou University, Suzhou Jiangsu 215021, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of stationary test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, a SVAR model is established to study the coordinated development of urbanization, industrialization and agriculture modernization. The results indicate the presence of long-term equilibrium relationship among urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization. Results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that industrialization has positive and lasting impact on urbanization and agricultural modernization. |
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| Keywords: | urbanization industrialization agricultural modernization SVAR model |
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