广西环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)来描述.该文根据广西1990—2005年经济与环境统计数据,采用工业废气、工业废水、工业固体废物、工业烟尘、SO2和COD排放量作为环境污染指标,人均GDP作为经济发展指标,建立了广西环境库兹涅茨曲线的计量模型,并据此分析广西经济发展与环境污染之间的相互关系及其变化原因.结果表明,广西人均GDP与工业废气、工业废水、化学需氧量、工业烟尘、工业SO2排放量以及固体废物产生量之间存在显著的相关性,主要环境指标的模型曲线呈现“倒U型”或“弱U型 倒U型”的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,且至今尚未到达峰值的转折点,说明广西经济发展仍处于经济增长伴随环境污染加剧的发展阶段,其根源在于工业经济粗放型的增长方式、低水平的产业结构以及环境保护投入的严重不足.

Empirical Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Guangxi

The Environment Kuznets Curve(EKC) is often used to analyse the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation.Based on the economic and environmental data from 1990 to 2005,the EKC model was setup to examine the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Guangxi,China.The economic indicator GDP per capita is taken to measure the level of economic development.Six environmental indicators were considered in the EKC model.They are waste water,waste gas,solid waste,soot,SO2 and COD.From the examination of the EKC,the relationships between GDP per capita and the main environmental indicators present inverted-U or weak U inverted U pattern,and the peak turning points of EKC in these environmental indicators have not been reached.It is revealed that Guangxi is still at the early stage of industrialization process.Therefore,there may be a trend that the environmental quality will become worse while the GPD increases.Based on the research,it is considered that improper industrial structure,lack of investment in environmental protection are the main factors which lead to the environment degradation in Guangxi.