| 突变理论在工业事故预警中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁晓芳,李红霞,田水承. 突变理论在工业事故预警中的应用[J]. 西安科技大学学报, 2011, 31(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁晓芳 李红霞 田水承 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安,710054
2. 西部矿井开采及灾害防治教育部重点实验室,陕西西安,710054 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅专项基金项目，陕西省软科学研究计划项目，陕西省教育厅专项基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对工业事故的突变特点和传统系统评价预警方法的弊端,介绍了突变理论评价预警的原理,提出了工业事故的突变预警方法该方法通过突变模型归一公式本身的内在机理来决定各指标的重要性及其量化过程,既避免了评价指标权重的不确定问题,又减少了评价人员主观因素的影响为更好地消减专家对底层指标打分结果的不确定性,将三角模糊数理论引入到突变评价预警模型中,可以对不同类型决策者(λ,α取不同值时)评价结果的稳定性进行分析实例应用分析表明,该方法合理,可行,且评价预警结果具有较好的稳定性
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| 关 键 词： | 工业事故 突变理论 三角模糊数 |
Industrial accident early warning based on catastrophe theory |
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| YUAN Xiao-fang,LI Hong-xia,TIAN Shui-cheng. Industrial accident early warning based on catastrophe theory[J]. JOurnal of XI’an University of Science and Technology, 2011, 31(4) |
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| Authors: | YUAN Xiao-fang LI Hong-xia TIAN Shui-cheng |
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| Affiliation: | YUAN Xiao-fang1,LI Hong-xia1,TIAN Shui-cheng2(1.College of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China,2.Key Laboratory of Western Mine Exploitation & Hazard Prevention,Ministry of Education,China) |
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| Abstract: | Because of the catastrophe characteristics of industrial accidents and the drawbacks of traditional early warning methods based on evaluation,this paper developed the catastrophe theory early warning method and investigated the principle of catastrophe theory in early warning.In this method,the importance and quantitative process of each assessing index were determined by the intrinsic mechanism of the normalized formula in catastrophe model,thus the problems of estimating the assessing index weights were a... |
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| Keywords: | industrial accident catastrophe theory triangular fuzzy number |
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