用内生技术学习曲线对西部能源系统的分析

为了解决能源系统分析模型中技术参数外生给定而不能真实地反映学习效应的问题,该文构建了一个内生化技术学习曲线的西部能源可持续开发利用模型。通过模型研究了在是否考虑内生技术学习曲线的情况下的2种不同的能源系统分析情景。结果表明,考虑内生技术学习曲线后,电力系统结构发生了明显的变化,它趋向于引入效率更高环境更友好的新技术,从而使得西部能源结构更趋合理,能源系统对生态环境的冲击变小。

Energy system analysis for western China using endogenous technology learning curves

A sustainable energy development model for the western China was developed using a learning curve model.The model was used to study two different energy system analysis scenarios with or without endogenous learning curves.New technologies usually possess learning effects but the technical parameters in a energy system analysis model are exogenous without truly reflecting the learning effect.The results indicate that incorporation of learning curves significantly changes the electrical generation mix in the western China,favoring the introduction of new,more efficient,more environmental and friendly technologies to optimize the wes-tern China energy structure and reduce the environmental impact.