白银市热量资源评估

利用白银市及周边28个气象站的气温资料,分析了区域内近50年和30年热量资源的状况.建立了气温、积温与经纬度、海拔的关系,利用回归方程计算了全市各乡镇的年平均气温和积温,与气象站的实测值一起,利用Surfer软件分别绘制了平均气温和积温的分布图,对周边地区有重要参考价值;从热量的时间演变来分析,白银市气温适宜,日较差较大,气候变暖显著,热量资源增加明显,作物生长期延长了20天,未来还将持续变暖;以80%保证率≥10℃积温为热量资源的区划指标,将全市分为温暖、温和、温凉3个区;与近50年相比,近30年白银市年平均气温增加了0.5℃,≥0℃、≥10℃积温都增加了50℃,80%保证率≥10℃积温增加了140℃,温暖区明显扩大.

Assessment of Thermal Resources in Baiyin

Based on the meteorological material of 28 observational stations in and around Baiyin between 1961 and 2010, thermal resources conditions were analyzed by Gumbel distribution, regression analysis, wavelet analysis,and so on. The relationship between the temperature and the accumulated temperature, and the longitude, latitude and elevation above sea level was established, and the annual mean temperature and the accumulated temperature of the villages and towns in Baiyin were calculated by using the regression equation,the distribution maps of the annual mean temperature and the accumulated temperature of the past 30 and 50 years were separately drawn based on actual values observed at the 28 stations and by the Surfer software,which are of some reference value for the neighboring areas. Seen from the thermal time evolution,Baiyin is favorable in climate, greater in the daily range of temperature, and significant in the in- crease of thermal resources and in climatic warming, showing that the crop growing period lengthens by 20 days and the weather is certain to continue becoming warm in the future. The whole area can be divided into three sub-areas=warm, temperate and warm-cool by the thermal resources regionalization standard of the 800//oo guarantee rate ~ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature. Compared with the past 50-year annual mean temperature in Baiyin, the past-30-year annual mean temperature increased by 0. 5 ℃, the -0 ℃ and ~10 ℃ accumulated temperatures both increased by 50 ℃, and the 80G guarantee rate -10 ℃ accumula ted temperature increased by 140 ℃, which means the warm area obviously expanded.