江苏农村居民收入差距、消费差异与消费潜力研究———基于江苏农村细化SAM的乘数分析

在所建立的2002年江苏农村居民消费细化社会核算矩阵(Social Accounting Matrix,SAM)的基础上,通过SAM乘数的分解,从不同商品及服务消费和不同收入分组两方面对江苏农村居民消费净开放效应进行分析,并将账户乘数和固定价格乘数效应进行了比较分析.主要研究结论:第一,居住、食品和交通通讯是目前江苏农村居民的消费热点,但教育文化娱乐、衣着和医疗保健消费重视程度不足;第二,除最高收入户外,江苏各收入阶层对家庭设备及服务具有较大的消费欲望,消费潜力巨大;第三,中低收入及以下收入阶层对医疗保健和教育文化娱乐消费欲望非常强烈,政府应该在相关福利政策上给予一定支持,以促进这两类消费的良性发展;最后,为继续保持江苏农村居民交通通讯的发展,政府仍然有必要加强农村交通通讯基础设施建设,从而改变居民消费行为.

Research on Income Distribution, Consumption Difference and Consumption Potential of Jiangsu Rural Residents in China——A microSAM-based multiplier analysis

This paper,based on the MicroSAM of consumption of Jiangsu rural residents in 2002,studies on open net effects of consumption of Jiangsu rural residents' behaviors in China through different commodities and services consumption and different groups of incomes,by decomposing SAM-based multipliers.Also,this paper compares accounting multipliers and fixed price multipliers.We draw the main conclusions as follows: Firstly,residence,food and traffic and communications are consumption hotspots for Jiangsu rural residents at present,but people put less attention to recreation,education and cultural services,clothing and medicine and medical services;Secondly,except for the higher of rural residents,all groups of earnings in Jiangsu have higher consumption desire and greater consumption potential to household facilities and services;Thirdly,the middle-lower and the lower of rural residents have higher consumption desire to medicine and medical services and recreation,education and cultural services.Hence,the government should give some help on correlative welfare policy to advance the development of these two group's consumptions;Finally,to keep on the development of Jiangsu traffic and communications,the government also needs to enhance basic establishments of rural traffic and communications to change consumption behaviors of rural residents.