| 基于Theil不等系数的调和平均组合预测模型在大坝安全监控中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王佳林,许后磊,徐波. 基于Theil不等系数的调和平均组合预测模型在大坝安全监控中的应用[J]. 三峡大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 32(1): 14-16 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王佳林 许后磊 徐波 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学,水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京,210098;河海大学,水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技支撑计划，江苏省"333高层次人才培养工程"科研项目，高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 引进相关性指标Theil不等系数,采用调和平均组合预测方法,建立了基于Theil不等系数的调和平均大坝安全监控组合预测模型.结合某拱坝实测资料分析表明,该组合预测模型的预报精度高于传统的加权算术平均组合预测模型和各种单一预测模型,在大坝安全监测预报中具有较强的实用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 大坝安全监控 Theil不等系数 调和平均组合预测 |
Application of Harmonic Mean Combination Forecasting Model Based on Theil Coefficient to Dam Safety Monitoring |
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| Wang Jialin,Xu Houlei,Xu Bo. Application of Harmonic Mean Combination Forecasting Model Based on Theil Coefficient to Dam Safety Monitoring[J]. Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences), 2010, 32(1): 14-16 |
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| Authors: | Wang Jialin Xu Houlei Xu Bo |
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| Affiliation: | Wang Jialin1,2 Xu Houlei1,2 Xu Bo1,2(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China,2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization , Engineering Safety,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the introduction of relevant indicator Theil coefficient and the application of harmonic mean combination forecasting method,the harmonic mean combination forecasting model based on Theil coefficient for dam safety monitoring is established.The forecasting results with the model for an arch dam show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed combination forecasting model is superior to the traditional weighted arithmetic averaging combination forecasting model and various single forecasting models.It... |
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| Keywords: | dam safety monitoring Theil coefficient harmonic mean combination forecasting |
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