| 上海市日本游客客流量的灰色预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 卫海燕.上海市日本游客客流量的灰色预测模型[J].山西大学学报(自然科学版),2000,23(2):123-125. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卫海燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安,710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(49571027)． |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对上海市境外旅游客源市场游客数量的分析，得出日本为上海最大的境外旅游客源国。根据客流量与时间的关系，利用灰色系统理论建立ＧＭ（１，１）灰色预测动态模型，其研究模型不仅与实际客流量相吻合，还可较精确地给出短期甚至中的预报结果，以便于未来几年客流量进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 境外游客 上海 灰色预测模型 日本游客 客流量 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-2395(2000)02-0123-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-10-09 |
A Gray Prediction Model of Japan Overseas Tourists in Shanghai City |
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| WEI Hai-yan.A Gray Prediction Model of Japan Overseas Tourists in Shanghai City[J].Journal of Shanxi University (Natural Science Edition),2000,23(2):123-125. |
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| Authors: | WEI Hai-yan |
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| Institution: | WEI Hai-yan
;(College of Tourism and Environmental Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on analysing the market of Japan overseas tourists in Shanghai,a grey prediction model known as applying theory of grey system froms GM( 1 ,1 ) model relationship is in the lightof the relation- ship between tourist flow and time.The model tallies with the actual tourist flow,it may also be used for predicting tourist flow in the coming years. |
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| Keywords: | overseas tourists gray system GM (1 1) model Shanghai city |
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