浅析乌鲁木齐市土地利用动态趋势

在分析乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化与驱动力的基础上,将城镇用地细化为工业用地、居住用地和其它用地(园地、林地、牧草地、交通用地、水域用地等),并将它们与耕地和工业投资、人口增长、收入水平、水资源状况等主要驱动力纳入统一的总体结构中,采用系统动力学的方法,定量地描述它们的动态关系。系统动力学模型的基本模拟结果显示,城镇用地的长期变化趋势是一种“S”型的增长规律,从1980年至2030年是城镇用地变化的快速增长阶段。在城镇用地的变化过程中,工业用地、居住用地和第三产业用地在总的城镇用地中所占的比例在经过一个较长时期的波动后,大约从2020年开始基本保持稳定的状态。耕地的变化趋势是持续下降,并逐渐消失。

A Preliminary Analysis of the Dynamic Trends in the Land Utility of Urumqi

Bassed on the analysis of the changes and driving forces of the land utility in Urumqi,the authors classify the urban land into the land for industry,habitation and others(like gardens,wood,pasture,transportation and water resource),and put them into an overall structure together with other major driving forces of farmland,industrial investment,population growth,income and water resource,and in a quantitative way,describe the dynamic relations among them by the way of system dynamics.The basic simulation results of the system dynamics model indicate that the long-term trend for the urban land utility follows an S-shaped law of growth.