| 高速公路连续下坡路段交通事故预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王皓. 高速公路连续下坡路段交通事故预测[J]. 陕西理工学院学报(自然科学版), 2014, 0(3): 34-36,51 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王皓 |
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| 作者单位： | 长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决高速公路连续下坡路段交通事故,以广东仁新高速公路为例,建立了事故率与事故点前25 km的坡度、坡长之间的统计回归模型。结果表明事故率与事故点前2 km和3 km平均坡度之间呈现较为显著的指数关系,即事故率随平均坡度的增大而上升,事故率预测模型为:y=1.333 4e0.469 4x,R2=0.876 2。
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| 关 键 词： | 连续下坡 平均纵坡 事故预测 回归模型 组合设计 |
The traffic accident prediction on the continuous downhill section of highways |
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| WANG Hao. The traffic accident prediction on the continuous downhill section of highways[J]. Journal of Shananxi University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2014, 0(3): 34-36,51 |
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| Authors: | WANG Hao |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Hao ( Highway Institute, Chang＇ an University, Xi＇ an 710064, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of relevant research , the paper makes an overall accident probability study on the continuous downhill section on highways ,particularly in Renhua-Xinfeng section of Guangdong Province . The study constructs a statistical regression model indicating the relationship between accident rate , the slope height and length 2-5 kilometers before the accident site .The result shows that the accident rate is significantly correlated with the average slope 2-3 km before the accident site .Specifically , when the average slope be-comes steeper, accident rate goes higher.The prediction model is y=1.333 4e^0.469 4x,R^2 =0.876 2. |
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| Keywords: | continuous downhill average longitudinal slope accident prediction regression model combined design |
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