| 一种应用时间序列技术的短期电力负荷预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晛,张少华. 一种应用时间序列技术的短期电力负荷预测模型[J]. 上海大学学报(自然科学版), 2002, 8(2): 133-136 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晛 张少华 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海大学机械电子工程与自动化学院,上海200072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 (5 0 10 70 0 6)资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一种时间序列算法和模糊逻辑技术相结合的电力系统短期负荷预测方法 .它包括一个具有非线性特性的传递函数模型 ,可以考虑气温等外界因素对负荷的非线性影响 ,能使预测及时跟上负荷变化的趋势 ,适用于由于天气等因素变化引起负荷突变的预测场合 .为了更好地处理影响电力系统负荷的不确定性因素 ,便于利用预报人员的丰富知识和经验 ,此文采用了具有较强结构性知识表达能力的模糊逻辑技术与时间序列相结合的方法进行负荷预测 .测试结果表明了该方法的有效性
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 短期负荷预测 时间序列 模糊逻辑 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2861(2002)02-0133-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-07-10 |
An Improved Method for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Time Series Techniques |
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| WANG Xian,ZHANG Shao hua. An Improved Method for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Time Series Techniques[J]. Journal of Shanghai University(Natural Science), 2002, 8(2): 133-136 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xian ZHANG Shao hua |
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| Abstract: | An improved method for short term electric load forecasting is presented. It is based on time series methods and fuzzy logic techniques. In this method, a nonlinear transfer function technique is used to incorporate the nonlinear effects of weather conditions on power system load. Thus sudden changes in loads caused by meteorological variations can be reflected more quickly. To take considerations of the effects of various uncertainties on power system load and make full use of the valuable knowledge of load forecasters, fuzzy logic techniques are also introduced. The testing results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | power system short term load forecasting time series fuzzy logic |
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