| 基于误差修正模型的河川年径流量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王勇,顾海燕,刘明磊,史晓峰,翟双柱.基于误差修正模型的河川年径流量预测研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,27(5):751-753. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王勇 顾海燕 刘明磊 史晓峰 翟双柱 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨商业大学基础学院,哈尔滨,150028;东北林业大学理学院,哈尔滨,150040 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(11544013);黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(11551111); 东北林业大学青年科研基金项目(09027) |
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| 摘 要： | 对河川径流量预测进行了研究.考虑到年平均水位与年径流量关系密切,误差序列一般不是白噪声序列等因素,用传统的预测模型预测效果不佳.误差修正模型不需要假定误差序列是白噪声序列,只要变量间存在协整关系.利用年平均水位与年径流量的协整关系建立误差修正模型,并加以分析,得到了更好的预测模型.
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| 关 键 词： | 误差修正模型 协整 白噪声 误差 |
Study on prediction of annual runoff in river based on ECM model |
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| WANG Yong,GU Hai-yan,LIU Ming-lei,SHI Xiao-feng,ZHAI Shuang-zhu.Study on prediction of annual runoff in river based on ECM model[J].Journal of Harbin University of Commerce :Natural Sciences Edition,2011,27(5):751-753. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yong GU Hai-yan LIU Ming-lei SHI Xiao-feng ZHAI Shuang-zhu |
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| Institution: | WANG Yong,GU Hai-yan,LIU Ming-lei,SHI Xiao-feng,ZHAI Shuang-zhu(1.School of Basic Science,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China,2.School of science,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper studied on the prediction of river runoff.The annual runoff was closely related with average water level,and error sequence isn't generally white noise sequence.The predictor of traditional forecasting model are not well.Error correction model doesn't assume that the error sequence is the white noise sequence,as long as they are co-integrated between the variables.This paper established error correction model by using co-integration of the annual runoff and average water level,and analyzed the re... |
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| Keywords: | ECM model co-integration white noise error |
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