政策导向下的新能源公交车节能减排效果评估

以中国新能源公交车推广应用政策为导向,预测得到2020年中国新能源公交车的发展规模,并对“十三五”期间新能源公交车的节能减排效果进行评估.根据中国人口与城镇化的发展趋势,并结合公交车的增长趋势,预测得到2020年全国公交车营运车辆70万辆的发展规模.以新能源公交车推广应用政策导向为基础,依据新能源公交车推广应用政策中提出的发展目标,得到2020年全国新能源公交车营运车辆22万辆的发展规模.采用LEAP模型算法,得到“十三五”期间新能源公交车累计节能593万吨标准煤,减少碳排放1250万吨,节能减排效果十分显著.

Evaluation on Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Results of New Energy Buses Based on Policy Guidance

Oriented with the national policies on popularizing and applying new energy buses, the national new energy buses developing scale in 2020 was forecasted, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction effect of new energy buses during "the 13^th five years" was evaluated. Firstly, according to the developing trend of the quantity of people and the urbanization, combined with the increasing trend of buses, the developing scale of buses was forecasted as 700 thousand till 2020. Then, based on the policies orientation on popularizing and applying new energy buses, and according to the developing target in the policies of popularizing and applying new energy buses, the developing scale of new energy buses was obtained as 220 thousand in 2020. Finally, LEAP model was used to calculate the energy-saving and emission-reduction results of new energy buses. For the whole "13^th five years", the new energy buses will save standard coal for 5.93 million ton and reduce carbon emission for 12.5 million ton. It is apparent that the effects of energy-saving and emissionreduction are quite significant.