非机动车通勤者交叉口安全穿越可靠性分析

运用可靠性思想研究了非机动车通勤者的安全穿越可靠性及其关键因子，采用录像摄像方法获取非机动车通勤者的穿越行为数据，基于北京实测数据和加速风险模型方法，探讨了非机动车通勤者可靠性的最优模型和关键影响因素.结果表明，4种常用参数模型中威布尔分布模型最适合用于拟合非机动车通勤者的安全穿越可靠性，影响穿越可靠性的关键因子主要为骑行工具、等待区域、骑行方向和违规人数等.

Safe Crossing Reliability of Commuter Riders at Signalized Intersections

Crossing reliability and critical influencing factors of commuter riders at signalized intersections was investigated based on reliability theory. Crossing behavior data was collected by videos. Based on the empirical data in Beijing and accelerated hazard models method, the optimal mathematical model of safety crossing reliability was chosen and evaluated. The key factors affecting the crossing reliability were explored. The results indicate that the Weibull model is very appropriate for riders'' safety crossing reliability in four typical parametric models. Some potential variables including travel mode, waiting zone, moving direction and the number of violators have significantly impacts on safety crossing reliability of commuter riders.