贵州普定后寨岩溶地下水系统灰色预测模型研究

运用系统理论观点,分析了贵州普定后寨岩溶地下水系统基本特征,在此基础上建立了岩溶地下水系统灰色预测模型,并取得了较好的预报结果。此外,还对模型灰参数的物理意义进行了简单讨论,认为灰参数反映了岩溶地下水系统特征,加深了对系统了解。

A STUDY OF THE GRAY PREDICTIVE MODEL OF KARST GROUNDWATER SYSTEM FROM HOUZHAI, PUDING, GUIZHOU

In the case of complex karst ground water systems, a lot of mathematical models have beenused. But the models are not satisfactory for studying or interpreting the structure and the characteris-tics of a karst water system or function of the system. Based on the systematical theoretical viewpoint the authors discuss and analyse the characteristicsof the Houzhai karst ground water system, and get the following conclusions: the dischatge of the sys-tem is closely related to the precipitation; the boundary of the system is closed; and in the system existnot only channel flow of karst water but also dispersed fissure flow. Then based on the gray sytem the-ory, the authors present a new gray predictive of model (karst ground water system), the model is ap-plied and tested by using the observation data of discharge and precipi?tion, and the result is satisfacto-ry. Based on the change of gray parameter, the knowledge of the system can be deepened and moredetailed. It provides a scientific basis for rationally utilizing and planning Houzhai karst ground waterresources. The method and model used in this paper can be contributed to the analysis of other karstgroundwater system.