| 基于耕地压力指数和GM（1,1）模型的区域粮食安全状况研究——以甘肃省天水市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 高小琛,石培基,潘竟虎,吕立刚.基于耕地压力指数和GM（1,1）模型的区域粮食安全状况研究——以甘肃省天水市为例[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2011,27(4):407-412. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高小琛 石培基 潘竟虎 吕立刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州,730070
2. 兰州市国土资源评价研究院,甘肃兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(40671061;40971078) |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析天水市1996-2005年耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数,运用GM（1,1）模型对未来15 a天水市耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示：1996-2005年,虽然天水人均耕地面积持续减少,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食产量和人均占有量在持续增加,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势,但是耕地压力指数始终在1之上。未来15 a耕地压力指数将进一步降低,耕地生产力的供给水平高于食物消费水平,区域粮食安全隐患较小。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食安全 GM（1 1） 耕地压力指数 耕地 天水市 |
A Case Study of Tianshui City in Gansu:Plantation Preservation Quantity Research Based on Food Security and GM(1,1) Model |
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| GAO Xiao-chen,SHI Pei-ji,PAN Jing-hu,LV Li-gang.A Case Study of Tianshui City in Gansu:Plantation Preservation Quantity Research Based on Food Security and GM(1,1) Model[J].System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture,2011,27(4):407-412. |
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| Authors: | GAO Xiao-chen SHI Pei-ji PAN Jing-hu LV Li-gang |
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| Institution: | GAO Xiao-chen1,SHI Pei-ji1,PAN Jing-hu1,LV Li-gang2(1.Department of Geographic and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China,2.Lanzhou Institute of Land and Resources,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking Tianshui city in Gansu province for example,the aera of cultivated land and the plantation preservation quantity were determined based on Land-use changing data,population and food statistics between 1996 and 2005.The plantation preservation quantity of Tianshui the next 15 years was calculated in mathematical method of GM(1,1)model.The results show that: the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and the plantation preservation quantity decreased between 1996 and 2005.Moreover,the plantation pre... |
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| Keywords: | food security GM(1 1) plantation preservation quantity cultivated land Tianshui city |
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