成县近50 a气候变化特征

利用成县1961-2011年的气温、降水和日照资料,使用累积距平、一元线性回归、相关系数显著性检验等统计方法进行气候变化分析,找出气候变化的一般规律及气候异常年份的变化特征.分析表明,成县51a来年平均气温以0.113℃/10a的趋势变暖,1年之中冬季变暖趋势明显,秋季增温不明显.春夏两季出现了2个增温期和1个降温期,与年气温变化趋势基本一致,年平均气温大体分为1个偏冷期和2个偏暖期,1997年以来全年及冬、春、夏季平均气温偏暖明显;年降水量以12.58 mm/10 a的趋势减少,其中夏季减少趋势明显,而冬季呈微弱的增长趋势.年降水量大体分为3个多雨时段和2个少雨时段;年日照时数以-60.335 h/10 a的倾向率减少,年日照时数大体分为2个多日照期和2个少日照期.1980年为日照的突变期,之前日照总体偏丰,其后日照总体偏歉.

Characteristics of Climate Change of Chengxian in Recent 50 Years

Based on the data of temperature, precipitation and sunshine of Chengxian from 1961 to 2011, some statistic methods, such as cumulative departure, unitary linear regression analysis and correlation coefficient significance test,were adopted to analyze and identify general rules of climate change and characteristics of climate anomaly. The results showed that the average temperature of Chengxian increased by 0. 113 ℃/10 a in recent 51 years,winter temperature significantly rose in four seasons and annual average temperature of winter, spring and summer obviously went up after 1997. The annual precipitation decreased by 12.58 mm/10 a,and significantly in summer, but increased slightly in winter. The annual sunshine time decreased by -60. 335 h/10 a,and 1980 was the mutation period of sunshine time,before that sunshine was abundant,and after that sunshine became less.