电力系统安全经济运行的序贯概率仿真

电力系统的安全经济运行对国民经济意义重大。本文讨论了电力系统设备的概率模型,采用序贯仿真算法,按时间顺序采用蒙特卡罗抽样方法模拟设备的随机故障和电力系统的运行状态,采用线性规划优化算法对运行方式进行优化调度,以减少用户停电损失。文中建立了以停电指标为基础的安全指标和以发电成本表示的系统经济指标,并给出了IEEE-14节点系统的仿真结果。作为辅助决策工具,该算法的实现有利于量化评估电力系统的安全经济性能,具有一定的工程应用价值。

Sequential Probabilistic Simulation to Security and Economics of Power Systems

The secure and economic operation of power systems is very important to the development of our country. Probabilistic models of electric equipment are discussed in the paper. A Monte-Carlo probabilistic sampling based on sequential simulation is adopted to simulate the operation of power systems and the random outage of electric equipments. The operation parameter is optimized with a linear programming algorithm to reduce the load curtailment. Security indices based on load curtailment and economic indices based on generation cost are presented and illustrated by the results of IEEE-14 test system. As an auxiliary decision tool, the simulation software is helpful to quantitatively evaluate the property of power systems and is useful in electric engineering dispatching and planning.