近554年安徽省旱涝变化规律和突变现象的研究

基于安徽省近554年的旱涝等级资料,首先利用偏度系数、峰度系数、频次、累积距平等计算公式和方法进行旱涝变化规律的分析,结果表明:安徽省旱涝等级序列具有不对称分布即涝明显多于旱的非正态分布特征,呈现干燥期、湿润期的阶段性变化特征,以旱为主和以涝为主的现象间隔出现.其次运用旱涝序列分析和滑动t-检验法、Yamamoto法的检验方法都证明1723年、1774年和1913年附近出现序列的突变现象,数种方法都表明序列有基本相同的干湿转折点.

RESEARCH ON CLIMATE REGULAR AND CATASTROPHE PHENOMENON OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD OF ANHUI IN RESENT 554 YEARS

Based on grade data of drought and flood of Anhui in recent 554 years, variable regular are given by calculation method of departure coefficient, kurtosis coefficient, number of appearance, accumulative anomaly and so on. The results show that the series are partially distribution, or floods are more than droughts, that the series have the statistic of period variation, and that the series have the phenomenon of alternation appearance between drought and flood. That catastrophe phenomenon appeared in 1723, 1774 and 1913 nearly is tested by analysis of time series of drought and flood and moving-t method, Yamamoto method. That the series have the like same turning point between dry and damp is illustrated with some methods.