地理元胞自动机及空间动态转换规则的获取

 以东莞市黄江等镇城市发展为例，利用逐步逻辑回归方法，获取分区的元胞自动机动态规则，用分区的动态规则CA模拟了研究区1988-2004年的城市扩张，采用逐点对比法和Moran I指数对模拟结果进行了评价。结果表明，分区的空间动态转换规则比统一的静态转换规则能获得更高的模拟精度，动态转换规则克服了传统静态转换规则无法反映区域内部城市发展差异的缺陷。

Dynamic Transition Rules for Geographical Cellular Automata

There is rapid development of CA models for simulation of land use patterns and urban systems recently.The existing traditional models use the same transition rules in large areas or at long times. These models have limitations because they use the same factors and weights for different places and time intervals.In this paper,a method using dynamic transition rules was presented for producing more reliable urban simulation. The advantages of dynamic transition rules are apparent. Firstly, it uses different factors and weights in different place which is consistent with actual urban systems. Secondly, the main factors can be obtained from the dynamic transition rules in different places which may produce different urban development patterns. Based on the stepwise logistical regression model, dynamic transition rules were obtained for simulating the evolution of the urban systems in five towns of the Dongguan city from 1988 to 2004. Compared with the general CA model, the simulation precision is improved by using this method. From the factors and weights of dynamic transition rules, three types of development patterns were obtained: center development pattern, road development pattern and center road development pattern.