| ECMWF集合预报在淮河蒋家集流域的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 叶金印,顾玮琪,李巧玲,李致家,姚成,董小涛.ECMWF集合预报在淮河蒋家集流域的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(6):471-476. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 叶金印 顾玮琪 李巧玲 李致家 姚成 董小涛 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 淮河流域气象中心, 安徽 合肥 230031; 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,水利部综合事业局, 北京 100053 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(41201028,41130639)；淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM201205) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)集合降水预报产品(预见期为10 d),提取淮河蒋家集以上流域的预报数据并进行降尺度处理,驱动洪水预报模型,对2008年8月的一次洪水过程进行模拟预报。为探讨ECMWF集合降水预报驱动洪水预报模型的应用效果,将模拟预报的结果与仅采用地面降水观测数据驱动模型的模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明:采用ECMWF集合降水预报后,洪水模拟预报精度有明显改进,可使洪水预见期提前48 h;洪水模拟预报流量过程线能刻画洪水预报的不确定性范围,可为防洪减灾提供科学决策依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 ECMWF集合预报 新安江模型 洪水预见期 淮河蒋家集以上流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/9/9 0:00:00 |
Application of ECMWF ensemble forecasts in Jiangjiaji Catchment of Huaihe River Basin |
| |
| YE Jinyin,GU Weiqi,LI Qiaoling,LI Zhiji,YAO Cheng and DONG Xiaotao.Application of ECMWF ensemble forecasts in Jiangjiaji Catchment of Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),2016,44(6):471-476. |
| |
| Authors: | YE Jinyin GU Weiqi LI Qiaoling LI Zhiji YAO Cheng and DONG Xiaotao |
| |
| Institution: | Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Hefei 230031, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China and Bureau of Comprehensive Development, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Using an ensemble forecast product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)with a ten-day lead time, forecast data in the Jiangjiaji Catchment of the Huaihe River Basin were extracted and disaggregated to drive a flood forecast model to simulate a flood event in August 2008. In order to study the effect of the flood forecast model driven by the ECMWF ensemble data, the simulated results from this model and the results from a model driven simply by the field precipitation data were compared and analyzed. The results show that the flood forecasting accuracy was improved using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts, and the lead time was extended 48 h. The forecasted discharge hydrographs can provide the uncertainty range of forecast discharges, which provides a scientific decision basis for flood control and disaster mitigation. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
