基于协同论的人口长期均衡发展评价研究——以山东省为例

笔者在梳理人口均衡发展理论和回顾以往学者研究的基础上,从系统论的角度重新解读人口自身均衡和外部均衡的内涵,并进而引入协调度模型对人口长期均衡发展进行定量测度和评价研究.选取山东省为研究对象,通过重新构建指标体系,对人口自身的内部均衡和整个PRED系统的均衡情况进行评价,得出结论：就人口自身而言,山东省的人口内部均衡状况是不断趋于协调的,人口结构较之数量和素质而言均衡情况较差.就人口外部均衡而言,整个PRED系统的协调度也是不断上升的,但是仍然处于中等协调阶段.

THE EVALUATION RESEARCH OF LONG-TERM BALANCED DEVELOPMENT OF THE POPULATION BASED ON SYNERGY THEORY——A CASE STUDY OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

This paper firstly sort out the theory of balanced population development and results of previous scholars, then get new cognition about the connotation of internal and external population development from the perspective of system theory, finally introduce coordination degree model to measuring and evaluating long - term balanced development of the population. This paper takes Shandong province as an example, through rebuild index system achieve evaluate the internal balanced population development and the balanced development of whole PRED system. We finally get conclusions as below： In terms of population itself, the condition of population internal balance of Shandong province is constantly tend to be coordinated, and the condition of population structure is worse compared to the population quality. In terms of the whole PRED system, the coordination degree is continuous rising, but still situates in the stage of moderate coordination.