| 油藏经营项目风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴林,刘先涛,朱仕军.油藏经营项目风险分析[J].西南石油大学学报（自然科学版）,2002,24(1):31-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴林 刘先涛 朱仕军 |
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| 作者单位： | (1.西南石油学院研究生院,四川南充637001; 2.西南石油学院工商管理学院; 3.西南石油学院石油工程学院) |
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| 摘 要： | 在油藏经营管理中,为降低风险成本,获得最大投资效益,需要进行风险分析。项目风险分析在整个油藏经营管理中占有非常重要的地位。根据油气勘探开发的特点,介绍了油藏经营项目中存在的风险。从风险分析的角度出发,指出了正确进行风险估计是油藏经营项目风险分析的关键,并提出了用于风险辨识和风险估计的方法。在具体建立风险分析的模型时,列举了三种典型的方法:期望值法,Monte-Carlo模拟法和风险影响图法,并对方法的使用提出了建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 油藏经营 项目风险分析 方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-09-21 |
RISK ANALYSIS FOR RESERVIOR MANAGEMENT PRO-JECT |
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| WU Lin,LIU Xian-tao ZHU Shi-jun ..RISK ANALYSIS FOR RESERVIOR MANAGEMENT PRO-JECT[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Seience & Technology Edition),2002,24(1):31-33. |
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| Authors: | WU Lin LIU Xian-tao ZHU Shi-jun |
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| Institution: | ( Southwest Petroleum Institute, Nanchong Sichuan 637001, China) |
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| Abstract: | Reservoir management a high investment and risk project in which the risk has direct influence on economic efficiency. As a result, risk analysis for the project plays a very important role in the reservoir management. The risk existing in the reservoir management projects has been analyzed according to characteris-tic of oil-gas exploitation and exploration. It is pointed out thatthe key of the analysis on the reservoir management project lies in correct risk estimation, and the methods applying in risk dis-tinguish and risk estimation have been presented.Three typical methods, namely Desired Value,Monte-Carlo Simulation,Risk Influence Diagram, have been specified. Some suggestions about using these methods have been put forward. |
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| Keywords: | reservoir management project risk analysis method |
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