不确定性环境下的多阶段军事对抗决策方法

以超博弈为理论基础, 将博弈论和决策论相结合研究不确定性环境下的多阶段军事对抗决策模型及求解方法. 集结每个阶段能够反映敌方信念的多个博弈子情景得到全时域情景集合, 通过分析各个全时域情景的纳什均衡预测敌方可能采取的综合均衡策略; 然后将全时域情景集合再次集结为全局情景, 在风险容许的范围内有针对性地选择期望效用较大的己方策略. 算例分析结果表明, 该方法可以有效应对不确定性, 所选己方策略至少不劣于综合均衡策略,并可能严格优于它.

Method of multistage military conflict decision-making in uncertainty environments

Combining decision and game theory, this paper studies on the model of multistage military conflict decision-making and its solving method in uncertainty environments based on hypergames. The full domain scenario set can be established through the integration of sub-scenario sets reflected enemy's beliefs in every stage. The decision maker can get the synthetic equilibrium strategies of other players on the basis of the full domain scenario set. Finally, one may determine the full game scenario through the integration of full domain scenarios and the feasible strategy of her own with risk assessment. Case study shows the proposed method can deal with uncertainty effectively. Noted that the feasible strategy is no worse than the synthetic equilibrium strategy and can be exactly better than that.