| 多变量非线性组合模型在石油消费预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩天锡,王彦霞.多变量非线性组合模型在石油消费预测中的应用[J].天津理工大学学报,2006,22(4):69-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩天锡 王彦霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津理工大学,经济与管理学院,天津,300191 |
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| 摘 要： | 我国石油消费需求除了受经济增长、技术进步、能源结构、产业结构调整等几种常见因素的影响外,还有石油价格、国家能源消费政策和政府提出的循环经济,大力推广节油措施和开发节油项目等因素影响石油消费上升的速度1].为了提高预测的准确性和稳定性,本文构建了多变量非线性加权
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| 关 键 词： | 石油消费 变量 预测 组合模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-095X（2006）04-0069-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月9日 |
The application of multivariate nonlinear combined model in petroleum consumption prediction |
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| HAN Tian-xi,WANG Yan-xia.The application of multivariate nonlinear combined model in petroleum consumption prediction[J].Journal of Tianjin University of Technology,2006,22(4):69-71. |
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| Authors: | HAN Tian-xi WANG Yan-xia |
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| Institution: | School of Economic and Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300191, China |
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| Abstract: | In the research of forecast, in order to enhance the accuracy and the stability of the forecast . not only need to choose the main influence factors, but also need to solve how to minish the influence of interferential factor. The petroleum consumption of our country has been more powerful since 1993 . The average annual increase rate is up to 7. 6%. The petroleum consumption of our country will keep a fast growth in the future. This text aims at the influencing factors about the petroleum consumption, builting up the multivariate nonlinear combined forecast model, and through the weighted combination reduced the impact of the uncertain factor. |
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| Keywords: | petroleum consumption variable forecast combined model |
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