杭州湾湾内天文潮与风暴潮耦合模式建立与应用

区域水资源复合系统的可持续利用演变呈不同S形增长模式.基于线性假设的Logistic模型不能够反映演变模式的多样性,所以引入更有弹性的Richards模型来描述区域水资源复合系统的演变过程,将其演变模式分为前后相近型、迅速崛起型和缓慢崛起型;并通过分析不同演变模式的特征得出,迅速崛起型的顶峰期前期、缓慢崛起型的起步期后期也是可持续利用的理想区间.在此基础上,进一步分析了区域水资源复合系统可持续利用长期演变轨迹,表明演变是连续性渐变和间断性涨落的结合.最后,以大连市为例,做了定量的应用研究.结果表明,大连市水资源复合系统1980～1988年、1990～1998年的演变轨迹呈规则的S形,其演变模式均属于迅速崛起型;1980～2007年的演变轨迹渐变中存在着涨落,基本符合S形,属于缓慢崛起型.

Construction of mode coupling astronomical tide with storm surge and its application in Hangzhou Bay

Based on estuarine and coastal hydrodynamic two-dimensional numerical simulation, the numerical model coupling astronomical tide with storm surge is established, which is confirmed to be suitable for Hangzhou Bay by validation of surge and integrated tidal level due to several typhoons, and accurately simulate storm surge and integrated wave propagation in the bay with strong tide. The model is applied to calculate the surges caused by possible maximum tropical cyclone at Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, and it is testified that the maximum surge increases and integrated high tidal level declines with the decreasing of encountered astronomical tidal level, and the increment of maximum surge can reach up to 85%. In the condition of average sea level, the maximum surge is 50% larger than that occurring at high astronomical tide, which is also larger than the value caused by most powerful super typhoon landing in China. Analytical results reveal that it is reasonable that maximum surge occurring at astronomical high tidal level should be used as the component of designed base flood level in the bay with strong tide.