基于出行方式划分模型的摩托车管理技术研究

本文针对城市交通摩托车出行问题，分析了摩托车交通带来的安全问题和污染问题，建立了Logit Kernel方式划分模型，并从完全禁摩和公交优先引导两种交通策略正反两个方面分析了交通策略实施后摩托车出行分担量的转移情况。结果表明从正面引导减少摩托车出行的公交优先策略对限制摩托车出行并不明显。因此要想改善摩托车出行带来的交通问题，必须采用渐进的模式实施禁摩交通政策。

The Management Strategy of Motor Travel based on Mode Split

: Much more unsafety and pollution problem in modern city caused by motor traffic leads the government to consider motor forbidden policy to be implemented. Aiming at the question above, a Logit Kernel model on mode split was established to simulate share diversion after the implementation of the complete motor forbidden measure as well as bus priority policy which as a alternative measure can also reduce the motor travel share. The results indicates that the implementation of bus priority policy can not cut down the motor travel share as remarkable as to be expected. Therefore, motor forbidden policy is a more efficient way to deal with the traffic problems aroused by motors.