秦皇岛市2001—2020年植被覆盖动态变化及预测

本研究基于谷歌地球引擎(Google Earth Engine,GEE)遥感数据云端运算平台,利用1443景的Landsat Surface Reflectance(陆地卫星地表反射率数据)长时间序列遥感影像数据,使用归一化植被指数、像元二分模型、变异系数、线性回归分析和CA-Markov模型等方法监测秦皇岛市2001—2020年间植被覆盖度的动态变化,并预测了2025年的植被覆盖情况。研究表明：(1)2001—2020年,秦皇岛市20年间的植被覆盖度总体良好,整体上以中高植被覆盖度和高植被覆盖度为主,二者面积之和均达到总面积的65%以上；低植被覆盖度与中低植被覆盖度的面积之和均未超过20%。(2)河流、湖泊以及城区周边的植被覆盖度波动性较大,变异系数范围在0.8到3.2之间。(3)20年间秦皇岛市植被覆盖度明显变化的区域占57.7%,其中减少的区域占17.7%,增加的区域占40%,植被覆盖度基本保持不变的区域占42.3%,且人为因素仍是影响植被覆盖度变化的主要因素。(4)预测结果表明,秦皇岛市2025年仍以高植被覆盖度为主,占比达到47.4%,增长了0.9%,低植被覆盖度和中植被覆盖度分别减少了0.8%和0.4%,中低植被覆盖度和中高植被覆盖度均增长了0.1%。此研究可为秦皇岛市的环境治理、城市规划等工作提供数据参考和理论依据。

Dynamic Changes and Forecast Analysis of Vegetation Coverage in Qinhuangdao from 2001 to 2020

(1.College of Earth Sciences, Yangtze University, Wuhan 430100, China): This research is based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) remote sensing data cloud computing platform, using the 1443 scene Landsat Surface Reflectance long-term remote sensing image data, using normalized vegetation index, pixel Methods such as dimidiate pixel model, coefficient of variation, linear regression analysis and CA-Markov model monitor the dynamic changes of vegetation coverage in Qinhuangdao from 2001 to 2020, and predict the vegetation coverage in 2025. Research shows that: (1) From 2001 to 2020, the vegetation coverage of Qinhuangdao in the past 20 years was generally good, with medium to high vegetation coverage and high vegetation coverage as the main factors, and the sum of the two areas reached more than 65% of the total area; The sum of the area of ??low vegetation coverage and medium and low vegetation coverage does not exceed 20%. (2) The vegetation coverage around rivers, lakes and urban areas fluctuates greatly, and the coefficient of variation ranges from 0.8 to 3.2. (3) The area where the vegetation coverage of Qinhuangdao has changed significantly in the past 20 years accounted for 57.7%, of which the decreased area accounted for 17.7%, the increased area accounted for 40%, and the area where the vegetation coverage remained basically unchanged accounted for 42.3%, and human factors remained unchanged. It is the main factor affecting the change of vegetation coverage. (4) The forecast results show that in 2025, Qinhuangdao will still be dominated by high vegetation coverage, accounting for 47.4%, an increase of 0.9%, and low vegetation coverage and medium vegetation coverage will decrease by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Both low vegetation coverage and medium-high vegetation coverage increased by 0.1%. This research can provide data reference and theoretical basis for the environmental governance and urban planning of Qinhuangdao.