天山北坡玛纳斯河流域水文随机模型的应用及比较

本文介绍了自回归模型与解集模型的基本原理，结合玛纳斯河流域的水文规律，分别应用二种随机模型对流域的水文进行模拟，二种随机模拟的实用性检验结果表明，自回归模型较解集模型更适用于该流域水文模拟。这对于生成该流域长系列的洪水、工程设计与分析具有指导意义，从而为该流域水资源进一步开发利用，为实现经济、社会、生态可持续发展提供基础条件。

Application and Comparison on Hydrology Random Simulation Model of Manasi River Basin on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains

This paper introduces the basic principles of the autoregressive model and the collection-disassemble model.Based on the hydrology rules of Manas river,it simulates the hydrology with two of the stochastic model and tests of the results.It showed that,autoregressive model is more since the regression model of a set model more suitable to the hydrology simulation in this area.This research has the instruction significance for the growth of the series floods and engineering design and analysis.Further,it deve...