输油管道池火灾事故后果不确定性分析

输油管道发生池火灾事故存在突发性和随机性，为此，以液池直径、燃烧速率和风速3个对池火热辐射通量影响较大的因素为不确定性参数，建立了输油管道池火灾事故不确定性分析模型，结合工程实例确定各不确定性参数的取值范围并采用拉丁超立方抽样法获取30~000个随机组合样本，再利用蒙特卡洛法分析池火热辐射通量分布特征，得到与事故点不同距离处池火灾致死率统计规律。结果表明，热辐射通量均值和致死率随事故点距离的增大而减小。根据致死区域的分布情况可为管道周边风险等级划分提供依据。

Uncertainty Analysis on Failure Consequence of Oil Pipeline Pool Fire

The occurrence of pool fire in oil pipeline is sudden and random. For this purpose, The uncertainty analysis model of oil pipeline pool fire accident was established by taking the three factors that have great influence on the heat radiation flux of the pool as the uncertainty parameters. The three factors were the diameter of the pool, the combustion rate and the wind speed. The value range of each uncertainty parameter was determined based on an engineering example and 30~000 random combination samples were obtained by Latin hypercube sampling method. and then, monte carlo method was used to analyze the distribution characteristics of heat radiation flux in the pool fire, and the statistical law of pool fire fatality rate at different locations away from the accident point was obtained. The results show that the mean thermal radiation flux and fatality rate decrease with the increase of distance from the accident site. The distribution of lethal areas can provide a basis for the classification of risk areas around the pipeline.