光伏组件价格影响因素——基于计量的案例分析

为了综合评价技术创新、生产规模、生产经验、市场需求这4种因素对光伏成本及组件价格的影响,该文在可再生能源学习曲线的基础上引入市场研究变量和各种表征变量之间的时间滞后关系,以日本、美国和中国为案例利用逐步回归法筛选出关键的影响因素。根据日本、美国和中国的历史经验,光伏成本下降驱动因素按作用从大到小排序为技术创新、生产规模扩大和生产经验增加,因此应引导中国技术创新规模扩大,并促进将研发创新、技术引进、规模化生产转化为成本下降。同时识别出需求移动引起了价格波动,因此应避免引起供不应求的需求急剧扩大。

Photovoltaic module price dynamics:Empirical evidences from case studies

Technological innovation,production scale,production experience and market demand all affect photovoltaic(PV) cost and module price.Market variables and time lag relationships are introduced into the renewable energy technology learning curve models,with stepwise regression used to identify critical factors in Japan,USA and China.The empirical results for Japan,USA and China show that the affecting PV cost reductions in descending order are technological innovation,production scaling and production experience,so China should encourage technological innovation and facilitate for technological innovation,technology transfer and large-scale production for cost reductions.Since the module price is also sensitive to market demand,sharp increases in demand with supply shortages should be avoided.