农机装备项目筛选方法探讨及决策预警

将农机装备项目筛选划分为立项评估、性能评估和预警评估,并分析了三类评估之间的关系,提出了农机装备项目筛选的整体评估模型.首先根据筛选目的、评价准则,完成立项评估;再综合利用熵权法和专家组的意见给出指标权重,进而应用TOPSIS法对农机装备项目性能进行评估;并利用集值统计方法分析了指标体系和评价方法所带来的决策风险;最后综合考虑立项评估、性能评估和预警评估的评价结果,给出了最终的决策结果.该方法的分析结果定量、客观,为制定正确、科学的农机装备项目决策提供了重要参考.

Screening Approach for the Agricultural Equipment Project and Its Pre-warning

In this paper,we proposed a whole model for project screening analysis of agricultural equipments based on the selection evaluation,performance evaluation and pre-warning evaluation.The relations among them are discussed.Firstly,selection evaluation is established according to indices system.Secondly,the weights of evaluation indices are obtained based on the results of entropy weight and expertise,then the evaluation of agricultural equipments performance is made using TOPSIS method.Thirdly,the decision risks produced by indices system and evaluating method are drawn by set-value statistics method.Finally,final decision results is presented according to the forenamed evaluation results.Based on this analysis,the results are quantitative and reliable and can provide important references to make correct,scientific and competitive project screening of agricultural equipment.