高校图书馆采购量预测研究

以H语言类图书的借阅量和藏书量为例,通过借阅量和借阅率之间的数量关系,介绍如何确定一类图书下一学年度采购量及采购量置信区间的步骤和方法。按照线性回归理论的检验要求,从全部37大类图书借阅量、藏书量、借阅率数据中,选择出符合检验要求的29类,预测29类图书在未来的2009-2010学年度采购量置信区间和全部37类图书采购量,为高校图书馆采访决策提供参考。

The Research about the Prediction of University Library Purchase

The library lending and collection of H category is used as a example in order to state the step and method of how to decide the point prediction and confident interval of library purchase in the coming school year through the quantity relationship between library lending and lending ratio.Directed by the test request of the linear regression theory,the author selects the library lending,collecion and lending ratio of 29 categories from that of 37 categories,which satisfies the test request,and predicts their confident interval of library purchase in the coming 2009-2010 school year.The library purchase of all 37 categories is predicted.The result can help to make a decision of library acquisition.