| 基于绝对误差的线性组合预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 韩 东,许葆华,马献果. 基于绝对误差的线性组合预测研究[J]. 河北科技大学学报, 2010, 31(6): 497-500,522 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 韩 东 许葆华 马献果 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]军械工程学院导弹工程系,河北石家庄050003 [2]河北科技大学信息科学与工程学院,河北石家庄050018 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对组合预测效果评价中存在着把拟合精度和预测精度相混淆的问题,阐述了区分样本区间和预测区间的组合预测精度评价方法,并在预测区间上对2种常用的基于绝对误差的线性组合预测方法的预测精度进行了评价,对评价结果进行实例和理论分析。在此基础上,提出一种新的基于绝对误差的线性组合预测方法——基于预测模型有效性的线性组合预测方法。
|
| 关 键 词： | 绝对误差 组合预测 有效性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-06-18 |
Research on linear combination forecasting based on absolute error |
| |
| HAN Dong,XU Bao-hua and MA Xian-guo. Research on linear combination forecasting based on absolute error[J]. Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology, 2010, 31(6): 497-500,522 |
| |
| Authors: | HAN Dong XU Bao-hua MA Xian-guo |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Missile Engineering,Ordnance Engineering College,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050003,China;2.College of Information Science and Engineering,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050018,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to solve the problem of mixing fitting precision with forecasting precision in combination forecasting,the precision evaluation method for distinguishing forecasting interval from sample interval is expatiated.The forecasting precision of two common linear combination forecasting models based on absolute error are evaluated on forecasting interval,and the evaluating result is validated and analyzed.Based on above analysis,a new linear combination forecasting method based on the forecasting model＇s validity is proposed. |
| |
| Keywords: | absolute error combination forecasting validity |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《河北科技大学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《河北科技大学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
